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Arctic and Antarctica
Reference:

Analysis of responses in the dynamics of sea ice area in separate regions of the Arctic to change of insolation

Fedorov Valerii Mikhailovich

PhD in Geography

Leading Scientific Associate, the faculty of Geography, M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University

119991, Russia, g. Moscow, ul. Leninskie Gory, 1, of. 1904B

fedorov.msu@mail.ru
ƒругие публикации этого автора
 

 
Grebennikov Pavel Borisovich

Engineer, the faculty of Geography, M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University

119991, Russia, g. Moscow, ul. Leninskie Gory, 1, of. 1904B

grebennikovp@list.ru
ƒругие публикации этого автора
 

 
Frolov Denis Maksimovich

Scientific Associate, the faculty of Geography, M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University

119991, Russia, g. Moscow, ul. Leninskie Gory, 1, of. 1904B

denisfrolovm@mail.ru
ƒругие публикации этого автора
 

 

DOI:

10.7256/2453-8922.2020.2.31875

Review date:

29-12-2019


Publish date:

01-06-2020


Abstract.

The subject of this research is the correlation analysis of changes in the area of sea ice in separate regions of the Arctic, and levels of internal regional correlations between multiyear monthly changes in the area of sea ice of different seas and the entire Arctic Ocean. The author also examines peculiarities in the annual amplitude course of interannual variability of monthly indices of the area of sea ice for separate districts of the Arctic, interregional links in the annual course of this amplitude of interannual variability, and determination of correlation between the annual indices of the area of sea ice with annual insolation contrast for various Arctic regions. The research method is the correlation data analysis on the area of distribution of sea ice in different districts of the Arctic and insolation contrast. The author builds an algorithm of the value forecast in the changes of sea ice area. Based on the analysis of internal correlations between multiyear and annual changes in the sea ice area in the Arctic regions, and connection with the insolation and insolation contrast, an algorithm is proposed for the value forecast of changes in the sea ice area in separate districts of the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere overall. For long-term forecast of annual values of the changes in sea ice area, the promising districts are Baffin Bay, Kara Sea, Barents Sea, Greenland Sea and Northern Hemisphere as a whole.

Keywords: regional correlation, Arctic seas, prediction algorithm, correlation analysis, insolation contrast, Earth insolation, area change, sea ice, satellite observations, regression model
This article written in Russian. You can find full text of article in Russian here .

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